Disney’s Mary Poppins Returns looks to be on course for a Wednesday opening day in the $7M-$8M range according to industry mid-day estimates. That figure is on par with the $7.2M Wednesday pre-Christmas opening for Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle last year as well as Disney’s Amy Adams 2007 musical Enchanted which opened the Wednesday before Thanksgiving to $7.96M.
The question is does Mary Poppins Returns get the pop from families over the weekend like Jumanji 2 did (5-day $52.7M, 6-day including Christmas was $71.9M)? There’s more serious competition in the family arena this year with Sony’s holdover Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse and Paramount opener Bumblebee and Warner Bros.’ Aquaman than what Jumanji 2 faced last December (arguably, in terms of the family play, it was just Star Wars: The Last Jedi). Should Mary Poppins Returns emulate a B.O. trajectory like Jumanji 2 or Enchanted, it’s looking at a five-day between $49M-$51M. Older females are sure to be a destination for the Emily Blunt — Lin-Manuel Miranda feature, and that demographic is known to pre-buy and plan their visits to the multiplex.
Mary Poppins is currently booked at 4,090 theaters. Last night there were special Dolby auditorium previews at 250 sites, and Disney isn’t reporting those numbers.
Today there are 6% K-12 schools off and 74% colleges out. That number per ComScore moves up to 15% and 78% respectively tomorrow and 32% and 84% by Friday.
Sony’s Spider-Verse earned $4.3M on Tuesday, +55% over Monday for a five-day total of $42.2M. Wednesday is looking at $2.7M.
Aquaman and Bumblebee start their previews at 5PM tomorrow night.
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