Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Wednesday

ESPN’s fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for November 2 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.

What you need to know for Wednesday’s games

Betting The City Of Angels: The Clippers are a road favorite and the Lakers are a small underdog tonight, two situations that carry specific betting angles. Since the beginning of last season, when the Clips find themselves in such a spot, unders are 12-2. Over that same period of time, the Lakers are just 2-5 ATS when an underdog by fewer than five points in front of their home crowd.

Down With Dinwiddie: Players operating in the Luka Doncic zip code are going to get chances to produce and Spencer Dinwiddie’s recent run hasn’t gotten enough love. Over 78% of his shots have either come at the rim or behind the 3-point line… he’s exactly what Dallas wants next to their star. Oh, and forget about simply chasing him off the 3-point line as he has five dimes in three of his past four games. He’s worth a look in DFS and all prop markets against a Jazz defense that is allowing 10.5% more points per possession on the road than at home.

Donovan Dimes Depend on Darius: Will Garland return tonight from an eye injury that happened on Opening night in Toronto? His status is up in the air, but you need to be ready to pounce when he returns, whether it is tonight or not. Through six games, Donovan Mitchell is averaging 39 minutes and 7.3 assists, neither of which is likely to sustain when his running mate returns. Due to the early pricing dynamic of DFS, Mitchell is going to be a near auto-fade whenever Garland returns and if sportsbooks are slow on adjusting for the news, we could find ourselves in a good spot to bet assist unders for Spida.

Finding Justise in Portland: Justise Winslow is available in over 98% of leagues and that’s just wrong. Sure, he’s yet to reach a dozen points, but in his five games he has …three multi-steal games, three games with at least five boards and four games with a block. Heck, the situation on Friday called for additional play-making in a shootout that saw 236 points scored and he filled the void with a team-high seven dimes in 24 minutes. The upside is a bit capped, but the floor for him in this role is about as friendly as you’ll find in a player available in such a high percentage of leagues.

Davion’s Day: The Kings won’t have De’Aaron Fox in the lineup tonight against the Heat due to a knee injury suffered in the team’s recent win over the Hornets. Sacramento’s star point guard played just eight minutes before being sidelined, leading to second-year guard Davion Mitchell (96% available in ESPN leagues) to handle lead creation duties in a rousing road win. Mitchell scored 25 points in 23 minutes and should see a full workload in Miami tonight, making him the premier plug-and-play option of the slate and a savvy target for scoring and passing props. Teammate Kevin Huerter (50%), meanwhile, posted 27 points with seven dimes against this same Miami team a few nights ago.

​​​​Wednesday Waivers: Several streaming and DFS values stand out for tonight’s slate, beginning with San Antonio’s Josh Richardson (95% available), who is no longer on the injury report and should play a sizable offensive role with Devin Vassell still sidelined with a knee ailment. Keep an eye on Richardson’s assist props, as he’s averaged eight dimes over his last two outings. Looking at the Pelicans, Brandon Ingram is still in concussion protocol, affording Trey Murphy III (73%) another game with heavy minutes and usage. Finally, we turn to the Hornets’ Dennis Smith Jr. (53%), who is due to start with LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier on the mend. As confirmation of his recent success, “DSJ” is averaging 7.8 assists and 2.3 steals during the past week.

— Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe

Games of the night

Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers
7 p.m. ET on ESPN, Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, Ohio

Line: Celtics (-2)
Money line: Celtics (-130), Cavaliers (+110)
Total: 220 points
BPI Projected Total: 225.1 points
BPI Win%: Celtics (52.6%)

Questionable: Darius Garland (eye)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Fantasy streamer: Kevin Love (available in 84.9% of leagues) is off to a strong start this season, particularly when the Cavaliers play against solid competition. In his last three games against teams currently .500 or better, Love is averaging 17.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG and 5.0 3PG in 22.0 MPG off the bench. The Cavs will need his production on Wednesday, against a tough Celtics squad that they just beat in Boston last week. — André Snellings

Best bet: Jayson Tatum over 27.5 points. Tatum has scored at least 29 points in four of his six games this season, including 32 points the last time he faced these same Cavaliers last week. The Celtics start three scoring-neutral players whose main roles are defense and playmaking, concentrating their scoring into the hands of Tatum and Brown. Without having to carry as much of the team’s offense-creating load, Tatum has flourished with a career-best pace of 30.8 PPG and 55.7 FG% thus far on the season. — Snellings

New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Lakers
10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California

Line: Pelicans (-3)
Money line: Pelicans (-155), Lakers (+130)
Total: 229.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 231.5 points
BPI Win%: Pelicans (60.3%)

Questionable: Anthony Davis (back)
Ruled out: Brandon Ingram (concussion)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Fantasy streamer: Lonnie Walker IV (rostered in 15% of leagues). Walker IV has scored 15 or more points in four games this season. Additionally, he has averaged 3.3 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.2 SPG, and 1.0 BPG in 31.2 MPG. The defensive stats of Walker IV keep him on the radar for streaming. — Eric Moody

Best bet: Zion Williamson over 33.5 points + rebounds. Williamson returned from a two game absence an delivered a 21 point and 12 rebound performance against the Clippers. His usage rate this season is 32.3%, so he should have a busy game against a Lakers defense that has struggled all season, especially against power forwards. — Moody

Breaking down the rest of the slate

Washington Wizards at Philadelphia 76ers
6 p.m. ET, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, Pennslyvania

Line: 76ers (-6.5)
Money line: 76ers (-260), Wizards (+210)
Total: 218 points
BPI Projected Total: 224.2 points
BPI Win%: 76ers (77%)

Questionable: Joel Embiid (illness)
Ruled Out: Corey Kispert (ankle)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks
7:30 p.m. ET, Madison Square Garden, New York

Line: Knicks (-2)
Money line: Knicks (-130), Hawks (+110)
Total: 233 points
BPI Projected Total: 228.3 points
BPI Win%: Hawks (52%)

Questionable: Onyeka Okongwu (shoulder)
Ruled out: Quentin Grimes (foot), Cam Reddish (illness)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Charlotte Hornets at Chicago Bulls
7:30 p.m. ET, United Center, Chicago, Illinois

Line: Bulls (-5)
Money line: Bulls (-210), Hornets (+175)
Total: 224 points
BPI Projected Total: 234.9 points
BPI Win%: Bulls (51.3%)

Questionable: Andre Drummond (shoulder), Coby White (quad), Zach LaVine (knee)
Doubtful: Terry Rozier (ankle), Cody Martin (quad)
Ruled out: LaMelo Ball (ankle)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Fantasy streamer: Dennis Smith Jr. (available in 48.9% of leagues) can still be streamed in almost half of ESPN’s leagues, despite his averages of 12.8 PPG, 7.4 APG, 5.0 RPG, 2.4 SPG and 0.8 3PG in his last five starts. With LaMelo Ball (ankle) out and Terry Rozier (ankle) doubtful again on Wednesday, Smith should be in for another strong game. — Snellings

Fantasy streamer: Ayo Dosnumu (available in 67.4% of leagues) is playing excellent ball to start his sophomore season, averaging 15.8 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.8 3PG and 1.5 SPG in 29.5 MPG over his last four outings. With Zach LaVine (knee) sitting on the second half of a back-to-back on Wednesday, Dosunmu should carry a heavier production load than usual. — Snellings

Best bet: P.J. Washington over 14.5 points. Washington is in the midst of a breakout season averaging 17.1 PPG and 31.1 MPG. Over the last two games, he has averaged 29.5 points per game while shooting 56.8% from the field. Power forwards have been tormenting the Bulls this season. — Moody

Sacramento Kings at Miami Heat
7:30 p.m. ET, FTX Arena, Miami, Florida

Line: Heat (-6)
Money line: Heat (-250), Kings (+205)
Total: 220.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 227.1 points
BPI Win%: Heat (67.4%)

Questionable: Tyler Herro (eye)
Ruled out: De’Aaron Fox (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

LA Clippers at Houston Rockets
8 p.m. ET, Toyota Center, Houston, Texas

Line: Clippers (-6)
Money line: Clippers (-225), Rockets (+185)
Total: 223 points
BPI Projected Total: 234.5 points
BPI Win%: Clippers (60.2%)

Ruled out: Kawhi Leonard (knee), Robert Covington (health and safety protocols), Jae’Sean Tate (ankle)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Fantasy streamer: Eric Gordon (available in 95.2% of leagues) is a 33 year old veteran starting on a team where the average age of the other four starters is not old enough to drink. Not surprisingly, Gordon routinely gets load management games, particularly in back-to-backs. But, since the Rockets haven’t played since Monday and don’t play again until Saturday, Gordon should be good to go against his former team on Wednesday. And, in his starts, Gordon has produced fantasy-worthy stats, to the tune of 15.2 PPG (48.2 FG%, 78.6 FT%), 3.2 APG, 2.6 RPG, 2.2 3PG and 1.2 SPG in 32.0 MPG over his last five outings. — Snellings

Best bet: Paul George over 24.5 points. George came alive against this same Rockets team on Monday, scoring 35 points in 38 minutes of a 2-point victory, in Los Angeles. With this game in Houston, there’s a likelihood that this game is competitive as well, which would afford George a full allotment of minutes. The Rockets are among the weakest defenses in the NBA against shooting guards, allowing the position to score 26.0 PPG. — Snellings

Detroit Pistons at Milwaukee Bucks
8 p.m. ET, Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Line: Bucks (-11.5)
Money line: Bucks (-700), Pistons (+500)
Total: 222.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 231.9 points
BPI Win%: Bucks (83.1%)

Fantasy streamer: Jrue Holiday over 33.5 points + assists + rebounds. Holiday is averaging 19.2 PPG, 5.0 RPG and a career high 8.3 APG. The Pistons have been generous to point guards all season, allowing 31.2 PPG, 9.3 APG and 6.8 RPG to point guards. Detroit also ranks 23rd in points allowed per 100 possessions. — Moody

Best bet: Brook Lopez over 2.5 blocks. Lopez has exceeded expectations so far this season. Over his last three games he’s averaged 19.7 PPG, 8.7 RPG and 2.3 BPG. This season, the Pistons have allowed opposition centers to accumulate a lot of blocks against them. The fourth most on a per game basis. — Moody

Toronto Raptors at San Antonio Spurs
8 p.m. ET, AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas

Line: Raptors (-6.5)
Money line: Raptors (-278), Spurs (+222)
Total: 225 points
BPI Projected Total: 229.6 points
BPI Win%: Raptors (63.4%)

Questionable: Fred VanVleet (back)
Probable: Otto Porter Jr. (personal)
Ruled out: Isaiah Roby (illness), Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks
8:30 p.m ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas

Line: Mavericks (-5.5)
Money line: Mavericks (-225), Jazz (+185)
Total: 221.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 231.4 points
BPI Win%: Mavericks (67.8%)

Questionable: Christian Wood (illness)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Best bet: Mavericks -5.5. I’m taking the Mavericks. Despite a 6-2 record, the Jazz’s momentum has to end eventually. I envision Luka Doncic and the Mavericks stepping up in this matchup. Doncic has averaged 25.2 PPG, 7.6 RPG and 6.0 APG in 10 career games against the Jazz. Against the Mavericks, Utah is 1-10 against the spread in the last 11 games, and they are 1-5 against the spread in their last six meetings in Dallas. — Moody

Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers
10 p.m. ET, Moda Center, Portland, Oregon

Line: Grizzlies (-4.5)
Money line: Grizzlies (-190), Blazers (+158)
Total: 226.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 236.8 points
BPI Win%: Grizzlies (60.5%)

Questionable: Desmond Bane (ankle), Jake LaRavia (illness), Steven Adams (jaw), Josh Hart (concussion)
Ruled out: Damian Lillard (calf), Gary Payton II (abdomen)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Fantasy streamer: Shaedon Sharpe (available in 96.4% of leagues) is on a three-game double-digit scoring streak, averaging 13.3 PPG (53.3 FG%, 71.4 FT%), 3.3 RPG and 1.0 3PG in 22.0 MPG during that stretch. He moved into the starting line-up on Friday in place of the injured Damian Lillard (calf), and played 29 minutes in his first NBA start. With Lillard out again Wednesday, Sharpe could be in for another big minutes outing. — Snellings

Best bet: Anfernee Simons over 24.5 points. Simons has shifted to the point guard and lead offense-creating slot for the Trail Blazers with Damian Lillard out. In his first game in that role, he dropped 30 points in a 14-point win over the Rockets. He’s scored 29 or more points in two of his last three games, and seems to have his shot working in great form. The Grizzlies are also soft on opposing point guards, allowing the position to average 29.0 PPG this season. — Snellings

Best bet: Ja Morant over 36.5 points + assists. Morant has had at least 34 points in four games this season. Additionally, he averages 6.3 assists per game. Against a Trail Blazers team without Lillard, Morant is poised for an epic performance. The effective field goal percentage for Portland’s opponents is 54.4%. The Grizzlies rank 29th in points allowed per 100 possessions, so this game should have a lot of scoring. — Moody

Analytics edge

1. Milwaukee Bucks (121.5)
2. Memphis Grizzlies (119.9)
3. LA Clippers (118.7)

BPI lowest projected totals

1. Boston Celtics (108.2)
2. Detroit Pistons (111.1)
3. Miami Heat (111.1)

BPI top probability to win (straight up)

1. Milwaukee Bucks (83.1%)
2. Philadelphia 76ers (77%)
3. Dallas Mavericks (67.8%)

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