Pass the gravy … and pass for the first touchdown of the third quarter!
That’s what will be going on at my small family gathering for Thanksgiving, as I keep one eye on my plate and the other on the Dallas Cowboys-Washington Football Team game to keep track of how my selections are doing in the FOX Bet $50,000 Super 6 Thursday contest.
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This is my third entry into the contest. In Week 10, I hit on two of the six questions (total number of touchdown scorers and total points) in the Indianapolis Colts’ victory over the Tennessee Titans.
Last week, I was riding high when the Seattle Seahawks’ Jason Myers kicked a field goal just before the half, but that was my only correct answer. I had a great chance at No. 2, when I predicted the first touchdown of the third quarter would be an Arizona Cardinals rushing touchdown, but Kyler Murray decided to throw the ball into the end zone instead, as quarterbacks often do. There was no solace in the possibility that had the Cardinals gotten 11 more yards to send the game to overtime, I would have hit on the passing yards prop, probably the total points and possibly the winner and margin.
So, here we go with the Cowboys vs. the Football Team.
1. What will be the last scoring play of the 1st half?
a) Cowboys TD
b) Cowboys FG
c) Washington TD
d) Washington FG
e) Any other score/no score
In the 42 games I’ve charted over the past three weeks, there have been 27 field goals as the final scoring play of the first half vs. 14 offensive touchdowns and one defensive touchdown. Though the odds favor a field goal, I’m not feeling that in this game. Dallas’ Greg “The Leg” Zuerlein is a perfect 9 for 9 from 40-49 yards but is just 1 for 4 from 50+. Washington’s Dustin Hopkins, who has been battling a groin injury, is just 7 of 12 from 40 yards and longer. I can envision a final-seconds field-goal attempt getting blocked to let the final points of the first half stand as a touchdown. Let’s call it a Washington touchdown on a run by Antonio Gibson, who has eight rushing TDs this season.
2. How will the first TD of the third quarter be scored?
a) Cowboys rushing
b) Cowboys passing
c) Washington rushing
d) Washington passing
e) Any other TD
f) No TD
This category had a clear winner in Week 11. In 10 games, the first touchdown of the third quarter came on a passing play. In three games, it was a rushing score. And in one game, there were no touchdowns scored in the third quarter. Let’s roll with that trend and go with a Dallas touchdown pass from Andy Dalton to rookie CeeDee Lamb, who makes some ridiculous catches. There’s no extra credit, but wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a long one of 50 yards or more.
3. How many different players will score a TD in the game?
a) 1-2
b) 3
c) 4
d) 5
e) 6+
f) No player scores a TD
This question goes hand in hand with the next one about total points. Now’s a good time to try to figure out the total, because that will give you an estimate of how many touchdowns will be scored. Washington averages 20 PPG and Dallas 23.5 for a total of 43.5. Washington gives up 22.7 PPG and Dallas 31.8 for a total of 54.5. The midpoint is 49. That would be seven touchdowns if there are no field goals. Or more likely, there will be six TDs and a couple field goals. Dallas is led in touchdowns by Ezekiel Elliott (7), followed by Lamb (4) and Dalton Schultz (3). Amari Cooper (2) is certainly a threat. Washington is led by Gibson’s eight TDs, with Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas next with 3 each. My answer is 5, as I figure either Gibson or Elliott will double up.
4. How many total points will be scored in the game?
a) 40 points or less
b) 41-45 points
c) 46-50 points
d) 51-55 points
e) 56-60 points
f) 61+ points
The over/under at Fox Bet for this game is 46 points. Both that and my slightly mathematical and hardly fool-proof estimate of 49 fall into this band of 46-50 points. If you like to bet the Under and have a little more faith in Washington’s solid front seven on defense, I wouldn’t blame you for giving 41-45 a shot.
5. Who will have the most yards and how many yards will they have?
Cowboys lead with:
a) 0-340 yards
b) 341-360 yards
c) 361-380 yards
d) 381-400 yards
e) 401-420 yards
f) 421+ yards
Washington leads with:
a) 0-340 yards
b) 341-360 yards
c) 361-380 yards
d) 381-400 yards
e) 401-420 yards
f) 421+ yards
The Cowboys average 393.1 yards per game while Washington gives up 315.8 YPG. Meet in the middle at 354.4. Washington’s offense has been good for 324 YPG and Dallas has been giving up 386.8 YPG. That midpoint is 355.4, just a one-yard difference. That’s also right in the middle of that 381-400 band. I’ll give the edge to the Cowboys, who are coming in a little hotter offensively off their win at Minnesota last week.
6. Choose team to win & by how many points.
Cowboys by:
a) 1 to 2
b) 3 to 4
c) 5 to 6
d) 7 to 9
e) 10 to 14
f) 15+
Washington by:
a) 1 to 2
b) 3 to 4
c) 5 to 6
d) 7 to 9
e) 10 to 14
f) 15+
The 3 to 4 range was the most popular result in Week 11, with the last four games to finish (Colts-Packers, Cowboys-Vikings, Chiefs-Raiders and Rams-Buccaneers) all landing here. Unlike other questions where you’re trying to predict things that are influenced by the coin toss or game flow, this one’s all about your handicap of the game. Nail this and you won’t get shut out, at least. Put me down for Washington 26, Dallas 23.
And pass the apple pie!
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