Greenhouse gas emissions produced by humans are making heatwaves 30 times more likely

The extreme temperatures hit agriculture and infrastructure particularly hard and people were urged to cut their water usage.

New computer modelling analysis compared the actual climate with that of the natural climate we would have had without human-induced emissions.

It found that the UK now has around a 12% chance of summer average temperatures being as high as they were in 2018, whereas they would have less than 0.5% chance of happening in a “natural” climate.

This summer was the equal warmest in a series dating back to 1910, along with 2006, 2003 and 1976, with temperatures reaching a peak on 27 July when 35.6C (96F) was recorded at Felsham, Suffolk.

Professor Peter Stott, from the Met Office and University of Exeter, said: “Our provisional study compared computer models based on today’s climate with those of the natural climate we would have had without human-induced emissions.

“We find that the intensity of this summer’s heatwave is around 30 times more likely than would have been the case without climate change.”

He added: “This rapidly increasing chance results from the increase in concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.”

The Met Office findings will be announced at the UN climate talks currently taking place in Poland, where countries are meeting to finalise the rules of how the Paris Agreement on tackling global warming will work and to build momentum towards increasing ambition on efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

Greenpeace UK executive director John Sauven said: “The link between climate change and extreme weather like the heatwave that scorched the UK last summer is getting stronger.

“It used to be a fingerprint, it now looks more like a smoking gun. If we stay on the current course, we know the kind of world we’re heading towards: more floods, heatwaves, droughts, and rising sea levels.”

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Promising types ready to produce peak performances at Taree

Learning about ‘‘peaking’’ is a massive tool for carving out winning margins. Trainers talk about it, punters must respect it, and this is where the supreme value can be found.

Some produce their best first-up, others peak after one run, many hit the top of the hill third or fourth run in, some even longer.

A good track is expected for Monday’s seven-race card at Taree.

At Taree today, two runners slip into a ‘‘peak’’ zone at good odds.

In race three Go Lassie Go ($6.50) looms as a ‘‘peak’’ runner third-up in her first campaign from a stable renowned for getting horses up early in the prep.

Go Lassie Go worked home OK on debut at Quirindi over 1200m before stepping to 1400m on the same track and improving lengths. She was caught wide and had to do a stack of work from the half mile, but kept coming and wasn’t beaten far. This maiden has more depth and quality, but she is still rising and beautifully placed over this trip.

You could chart a similar – albeit much wider market – argument for local five-year-old mare Valbeata ($9.50) in race seven.

She hasn’t started for nearly seven months, and this is a challenging first-up task in a BM66, but her ‘‘peak’’ is likely to be right now. She powered home to win first-up last time at this track off an even longer break, and local trainer Bob Milligan is also shrewd at knowing when to produce them.

Valbeata has a strong fresh record and is best served ridden back and saved for one run. She gets all those ingredients here, and a little weight claim with Ceejay Graham aboard. She raced up to BM85 in the autumn grade and continually found the line.

Yes, against some hard fit opponents, she concedes ground in the market, but peak time might just come early here for one of the local flyers.

Taree Best Bets
Race 1: (3) Destiny’s Choice
Race 6: (2) Zioptimus
Best value
Race 3: (10) Go Lassie Go

Supplied by Racing NSW

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